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Statistics Instruction and Confidence Intervals

August 11, 2008

We can improve statistics instruction and education researchers’ uses of statistical tests by better understanding students’ mental representations of confidence intervals and appealing to the metaphors they convey. Confidence intervals contain a considerable amount of information in a concise format, making them are an attractive means of conveying experimental results. A new Working Paper by Timothy Grant and Mitchell J. Nathan examines two competing metaphors for confidence intervals for their impact on understanding, statistical problem solving, and future learning of mathematics. In the first metaphor confidence intervals are conceived as moving disks of various diameters covering a fixed but unknown point, like horseshoes of varying widths pitched at a fixed stake. This conception is correct. The second metaphor conceptualizes confidence intervals as fixed-diameter disks onto which successive points are placed. This metaphor is incorrect and generally results in inaccurate problem solving.

For more information, see WCER Working Paper No. 2008-5.