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Next Generation of Value-Added Models and Indicators
Given the growing importance of outcome-based accountability systems and
the widespread availabilty of longitudinal student assessment data, the time
is ripe for a project focused on developing the next generation of value-
added models and indicators. This methodology has emerged as the most
promising strategy for measuring the performance of schools, teachers,
programs, and policies. This research targets statistical and conceptual
problems that need to be addressed if value-added statistical models are to
be used to produce valid and useful measures of school and program
performance.
The project will develop web-based software to enable all school districts to
pilot and implement value-added systems. The project is working on
providing solutions to the following six major statistical/conceptual
problems:
- Weak and limited information on students, the norm in administrative
data sets, results in sample selection bias in standard estimates of school and
program productivity (apart from studies based on randomly assigned
programs). The preferred approach (in the common case in which it is not
possible or desirable to randomly assign students to schools) is to explicitly
model selection bias and identify the data structures and estimation
techniques that support elimination or reduction of that bias.
- Conventional value-added measures are insufficiently equity-oriented:
they fail to measure whether schools perform differentially for different
population groups (high and low achievers, poor and non-poor, etc.). The
preferred approach explicitly models the way in which district and school
performance varies with prior achievement and other characteristics. This
approach enables states and districts to monitor and set explicit value-added
performance objectives for schools with low-scoring students and other
policy-significant groups.
- Value-added indicators of school performance are typically disconnected
from explanation, diagnosis, and evaluation and thus are often ignored.
Schools want answers to the following (and other probing) questions: Why
does my value-added performance differ from average attainment? What can
I do to raise my value-added performance? The preferred approach embeds
measurement, diagnosis, and explanation in a unified value-added
system.
- Evolving and/or mismatched assessments and test scores measured on
different scales confound measurement of achievement growth and thus
threaten the validity of conventional value-added results. The preferred
approach is to generalize value-added tools so that they can encompass
multiple test scales and tests with overlapping but not identical content
coverage.
- Students who move into a district or state after the administration of
regular standardized assessments cannot be included in growth analyses
unless the unrealistic assumption is made that these students and non-
mobile students have similar population characteristics. The preferred
approach is to assess these students at the point of entry and incorporate
them into an appropriately generalized value-added model.
- Value-added indicators and evaluation tools are rarely, if ever, designed
to mesh with indicators and performance targets of the No Child Left Behind
Act (NCLB). The preferred approach is to join the two in a coherent and
supportive manner.
This program is supported by an advisory panel whose members include the
superintendent of the Milwaukee Public Schools and the research and
assessment directors from the Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Minneapolis
districts. |
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